The Brazilian real is weakening: inflation is 5.3%, the Central Bank is taking a break at the rate of 13.25%
Brazil is Russia's largest trading partner in Latin America. The trade turnover increased by 11% in the first quarter of 2026. But underneath this growth is currency instability, which affects the real value of transactions.
The real has weakened against the dollar by about 8-12% since the beginning of the year. For Russian exporters who receive payments in real rubles, this means less rubles at the exit. For Russian importers who pay for Brazilian goods in real terms, the ruble purchase price is reduced.
Why has inflation accelerated
Two main factors. First, the growth of global energy resources due to the Hormuz crisis has hit Brazil as a major importer of petroleum products (despite its own production on the Continental shelf). Secondly, the weakening of the real has made imported goods and raw materials more expensive, accelerating inflation through imported price growth.
The result is that inflation has exceeded the upper threshold of the Central Bank's target (4.5%). The bank was forced to stop the rate reduction cycle.
What does the pause signal?
The Central Bank of Brazil is in a difficult position. On the one hand, economic growth is slowing down and requires cheaper money. On the other hand, inflation is above target, and lowering the rate will only spur it through a further weakening of the real.
At a rate of 13.25%, the cost of a loan for Brazilian businesses is high, which slows down domestic demand. This indirectly affects the purchasing power of Brazilian partners when purchasing Russian goods.
Practical implications for calculations
Most Russian-Brazilian settlements now go through the yuan circuit (through Chinese intermediaries) or the dirham circuit (through the UAE). This means that there is no direct dependence on the real exchange rate — transactions are denominated in yuan or dirhams.
But for companies that price the final Brazilian market in real terms: a 10%+ weakening of the real against the dollar means a real decrease in margins. Index contract prices in dollars or yuan, not in reals.
A parallel positive factor: rising oil prices with Hormuz closed increases Brazil's export earnings from oil production, partially offsetting the pressure on the real. If oil returns to $100+, the real will stabilize.
The situation for payments via Drex
A weak real reduces the attractiveness of Drex as a settlement instrument: nominating in digital real with its weakening against the yuan is unprofitable for Russian exporters. With the stabilization of the real, Drex becomes more interesting — especially considering the successful pilot of Drex–the UAE digital dirhams.
